Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that reading. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome on any specific range, the frontrunner is 25°C at 54%, followed by 26°C at 23%, indicating traders expect mid-to-high summer warmth rather than extreme heat [1].

Historical context suggests moderate July highs are typical, though the Netherlands recently set a new July 1 heat record when De Bilt hit 33.2°C, the hottest such day since 1901 [2]. This outlier does not necessarily shift expectations for mid-July in Amsterdam, where Schiphol often records slightly lower temperatures than inland De Bilt due to coastal influence and airport infrastructure. The 0% probability likely reflects a binary “YES” condition tied to an unlisted or improbable threshold, not a belief that no significant warmth will occur.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for Schiphol as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, ensuring alignment with the official resolution source [1]. No major weather announcements or coaching-style catalysts apply here, but short-term forecast revisions from Dutch meteorological services could alter implied probabilities if extreme heatwaves develop unexpectedly. Watch for real-time temperature spikes in the hours leading to settlement, as last-minute shifts can resolve the market decisively.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.