Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s July temperatures are usually modest rather than extreme, with long-run averages around the low 20s Celsius and typical July highs near 22°C; even on 30 July specifically, published climate summaries put the day’s average high at about 76.5°F, or 24–25°C, depending on station and methodology.[1][2] That makes the market’s 0% YES price hard to reconcile with the historical baseline: the event resolves from the Schiphol station’s highest reading on the day, not the citywide average, but the available Amsterdam record data still suggest that a truly hot late-July outcome is uncommon relative to the broader monthly norm.[8][10]

For traders, the key catalyst is any warm spell over north-western Europe driven by a persistent ridge, which can push inland and airport readings well above average even when coastal conditions stay milder. The market page currently shows the leading buckets clustered around 25°C and 26°C, each at 21%, which implies the crowd is pricing a fairly standard summer afternoon rather than a high-end spike.[3] The main dependencies are the day’s prevailing cloud cover, wind direction off the North Sea, and whether showers move through early enough to cap the afternoon maximum; because settlement uses Wunderground’s Schiphol history page, the final print can differ from downtown Amsterdam if the airport runs a degree or two cooler or warmer than the city proper.[3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.