Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will report the day’s **highest temperature** on 31 July, and the market settles on the Celsius range containing that peak. In late July, Amsterdam’s baseline is warm but rarely extreme: climatology puts average July highs around 22°C, with warm days typically reaching about 30°C rather than sustained heatwave levels.[7][11][13] That makes the current 0% YES price look like a view that a threshold tied to a much hotter range is effectively out of reach, not a normal late-summer expectation.

Comparable July readings suggest traders should anchor to the upper teens or low 20s Celsius unless there is a marked hot spell. Historical summaries for Amsterdam show average late-July highs near 22.5–22.6°C, with daily highs generally clustering in the low 20s and only occasionally pushing into the high 20s or around 30°C.[4][5][9][11] Even broader July records in Amsterdam remain well below the sort of exceptional heat that would move the highest temperature into the top end of a range set for rare extremes.[9][11]

The main catalysts are short-term forecast changes, especially any warm advection from the south or south-west, cloud cover, drizzle, and wind, all of which can cap the afternoon maximum. A current forecast for Amsterdam on Friday points to about 26°C with mostly cloudy conditions, breezy south-westerlies, and a small drizzle chance, which is consistent with a modest cap rather than a sharp spike.[2] Traders should watch the Schiphol-specific daytime updates and any revised municipal or airport forecasts through the settlement window, because the market resolves on the airport station’s observed maximum, not the city-wide forecast.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.