Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station using the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement determined by the highest recorded reading in Celsius rather than summary figures that may diverge from granular station data.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 29–33°C during this period. The city's climate is shaped by the East Asian monsoon system, which can produce variable conditions across individual days. Since 2015, Beijing has recorded August maximums exceeding 35°C on roughly 15–20% of days, though such extremes remain outside the typical range. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall below the lowest threshold option available, which would align with cooler-than-average conditions or an unusually wet monsoon phase suppressing daytime heating.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. The specific date falls within the latter half of August, when the monsoon's intensity and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific become material factors—typhoons tracking toward or near Beijing can substantially depress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time station data from Weather Underground will be accessible throughout the settlement window, allowing traders to track actual conditions as 11 August approaches.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.