Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders will have limited time after the calendar day concludes to confirm final readings.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29–34°C during this period. The city's climate is influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon, which can produce variability in temperature depending on cloud cover and precipitation patterns. Reviewing comparable August dates from prior years provides the most reliable baseline: the past decade shows occasional days exceeding 35°C, though sustained heat waves pushing toward 37–38°C occur less frequently. Weather Underground's station-specific data at the airport often records slightly different values than city-centre measurements due to surface characteristics and elevation differences.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the accuracy and timeliness of Weather Underground's data feed from Beijing Capital International Airport. Traders should monitor weather forecasts issued in early August 2026, particularly those tracking high-pressure systems and potential monsoon disruptions. Any scheduled maintenance at the airport's weather station or data transmission issues could affect resolution certainty. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market may be pricing in uncertainty about data availability or resolution mechanics rather than reflecting climatological expectations for August temperatures in Beijing.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.