Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s early-August heat profile is the key reference point for this market, because the resolution depends on the single highest reading at Beijing Capital International Airport Station during the day. Long-run August guidance puts Beijing in a hot, humid regime, with typical highs around 30-32°C and regular convective rain interrupting the daytime peak rather than eliminating it[5][14][15]. Current August 2026 forecasts cluster a little higher than climatology, with daily highs commonly shown in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and a few sources flagging 3 August itself around 33-37°C, which makes a 0% YES price look anchored to an outcome that would require an unusually cold day by Beijing standards[1][2][6][8].

For traders, the main drivers are the timing of showers, cloud cover and whether heating can build before thunderstorms arrive, since brief clearing can still allow a late-afternoon spike at the airport station. Official and regional forecasts published on 2 August point to thunderstorms or cloudy conditions for Beijing, with maximum temperatures near 32°C in one city bulletin and 33-37°C in several forecast products[3][7][13]. The market should therefore be read as highly dependent on short-range forecast revisions, not on monthly averages alone; a wetter, earlier-rain scenario would cap the top reading, while delayed precipitation and stronger insolation would push the airport maximum higher[2][9][15].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.