Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s early-August weather is typically hot, humid and prone to showers, and this market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 4 August 2026. That makes the key question not whether it will be warm, but whether cloud cover or thunderstorm activity caps the day’s peak before it reaches the upper-30s implied by some forecasts. Several current forecasts point to highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, while one day-by-day model gives 36°C with rain and another commercial forecast cluster centres around 31–34°C, which helps explain why a 0% yes price is detached from the live weather picture.[1][3][4][11]

Historically, Beijing in August most often sits around 30–32°C by daytime maximum, with long-run guides describing the month as hot and rainy and occasional thunderstorm days above 35°C, especially early in the month.[4][12][14][17] In other words, the settlement band is usually driven by whether the airport station gets a brief heating window before convection builds, rather than by a sustained heatwave. For traders, the main catalysts are the latest short-range forecasts, any airport-area thunderstorm timing, and the final Wunderground daily-history update for the station, since the market uses the single highest reading for the day rather than an average.[1][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.