Highest temperature in Beijing on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s late-summer heat is still the key reference point for this settlement, but the current crowd price of 0% YES implies the market is treating an airport high in the relevant range as essentially impossible. That is hard to square with seasonal norms: August in Beijing is typically hot, with average highs around 30°C to 35°C in many guides and forecasts, and the first week often still sits near the peak-summer pattern rather than an early cool-down.[1][4][10][13]

For framing, the comparable cases are other early-August Beijing outcomes where the day’s maximum has usually been dictated by a mix of heat build-up, cloud cover, and rainfall rather than any structural shift in climate. Wunderground’s settlement source is the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, so the more relevant question is not citywide comfort but whether rain, haze, or a cooler air mass suppresses the airport reading below the usual low-to-mid 30s Celsius range implied by current forecasts and climate guides.[2][4][13] That makes the probability look low only if one expects an unusually muted afternoon by Beijing standards, not because 6 August is normally a cold date.

Traders should watch the short-range forecast updates, especially any change in rain timing or cloud cover around the afternoon, because Beijing’s August weather is frequently described as hot and rainy with sudden showers or thunderstorms.[2][4][10][13] The Hong Kong government’s regional city bulletin already shows Beijing on 6 August with a forecast maximum of 36°C, which is materially above the market’s implied stance, though that is city-level guidance rather than the airport-specific settlement reading.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.