Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s temperature on 8 August is usually governed by late-summer heat rather than any single extreme, with August averages commonly around 30–31°C for daytime highs and roughly 21–22°C for lows, and historical records showing occasional spikes into the mid-30s Celsius.[3][5][14] That makes a **0% YES** line look like a pure tail event rather than an active base case: for this market to clear, the Beijing Capital International Airport station would need to print a highest reading that lands in the specified range on the day, and the site is using Weather Underground’s *Daily Observations* table as the settlement source rather than the summary high/low panel.[16]

Comparable Beijing August readings suggest traders should anchor on the distribution, not the headline heat. Recent history shows 8 August sitting close to seasonal norms in many years, while the city’s broader August profile has been hot but not uniformly extreme, with typical highs near 31°C and only intermittent outliers above 33°C.[6][7][12] The more relevant comparison is whether the airport station logs a sustained afternoon peak or stays capped by cloud, showers or wind; on live historical pages, Beijing had already been showing mid-80s °F readings and passing clouds earlier in the day, which is consistent with a range-bound summer profile rather than a runaway heat spike.[1][4]

For the rest of the session, the key catalysts are the hourly observation updates at the airport station and any change in cloud cover, rainfall or wind that could lift or suppress the afternoon maximum.[1][16] Because this market resolves off a single station and a specific table, traders should watch for late-day warming, convective showers, or a reporting lag that could leave the Daily Observations table out of step with the summary display; the former controls settlement if the two disagree.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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