Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s summer heat is already in full swing, with the city experiencing its hottest month on record in recent years. The market in question hinges on whether the highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on 10 July 2026 will reach or exceed 29°C, a threshold currently priced at 96% YES. This extreme confidence reflects both the seasonality of July in Beijing and the broader trend of rising temperatures across northern China.

Historically, July is Beijing’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F) and rarely dipping below 26°C (78°F). In 2023, the city hit 40°C, and its all-time record stands at 41.9°C from 1999. Even with recent cooling spells, temperatures typically rebound quickly, as seen when they dropped to 34°C before rising again within days. These patterns strongly support the 96% probability, given that 29°C is well below both average and peak July readings.

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time data from Wunderground, the designated resolution source. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, humidity, or wind patterns could influence the final reading, though such events are unlikely to push temperatures below 29°C in mid-July. Recent reports from Reuters confirm China’s record-breaking heat in July 2024, reinforcing the climatic backdrop for this market. With settlement at noon on 10 July, the window for significant deviation is narrow, and the data so far aligns tightly with the crowd-implied outcome.

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Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.