Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records from Wunderground. July represents the height of Beijing's summer monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically range between 29°C and 34°C, though extreme heat events can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final recorded high must be captured before the market resolves.

Historical July temperatures at Beijing Capital International Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, peak July temperatures ranged from 31°C to 38°C, with readings above 35°C occurring in roughly four of those ten years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the highest temperature will fall below the lowest available range option, though this reflects current market structure rather than meteorological likelihood. Comparable late-July heat patterns indicate that temperatures in the 32–36°C band represent the most frequent outcomes historically.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models in the week preceding 25 July, as these will provide increasingly precise predictions of atmospheric conditions. Anomalous heat waves or sustained high-pressure systems over northern China could shift outcomes toward the upper temperature ranges. The specific measurement station—located at the airport rather than urban central Beijing—may record slightly cooler readings than city-centre locations due to its position outside the urban heat island effect, a factor worth considering when evaluating historical comparables.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.