Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan will determine this market's resolution. The settlement uses the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated stations record micro-fluctuations throughout the day. Busan's August climate typically produces daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

Historical August data from Gimhae shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in the region. The summer of 2023 saw Busan reach 34.2°C on multiple August dates, whilst 2022 recorded a peak of 35.1°C mid-month. These precedents suggest the 0% implied probability reflects either a very narrow temperature band or market uncertainty about the specific date's conditions relative to typical seasonal patterns.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts beginning in late July 2026, particularly any signals of North Pacific high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns that could elevate temperatures above the 32°C baseline. South Korea's meteorological agency typically issues extended outlooks four to six weeks ahead; any advisory regarding heat waves or unusual warming would shift market expectations. The precise resolution methodology—reliance on the Daily Observations table's granular readings—means even marginal temperature variations near range boundaries could prove decisive.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.