Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's weather on 18 August 2026 will be measured against historical August patterns for South Korea's second-largest city, where summer temperatures routinely exceed 30°C during the peak monsoon transition period. The resolution will depend on the highest temperature recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Gimhae International Airport Station, the official measurement point for the region, rather than summary figures that may differ.

August in Busan typically sees temperatures between 28–33°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. Historical data from comparable August dates shows that extreme heat events—those exceeding 35°C—occur in roughly 15–20% of years during this month, driven by the interaction of Pacific high-pressure systems and tropical moisture from the western Pacific. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that historical patterns indicate is unlikely but not unprecedented for the season.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, particularly any alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or anomalous pressure patterns. The exact temperature range boundaries set by the market will be critical; even a 1°C difference in the threshold can shift the probability substantially given Busan's typical August range. Real-time atmospheric conditions in early August will provide the most reliable signal for adjusting positions, as seasonal forecasts issued months in advance carry limited predictive value for specific daily maxima.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.