Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's outcome. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on the specified date. Chengdu's August climate typically features afternoon highs between 29–34°C, though extreme heat events pushing above 35°C occur irregularly during summer months.

Historical August temperature records for Chengdu show considerable year-to-year variation. The city experienced a peak of 40.2°C in August 2006, whilst more recent summers have produced highs in the 32–36°C range. Traders should note that the 0% crowd probability suggests either confidence in a specific temperature band or limited market participation. Comparable Chinese cities at similar latitudes and elevations show August highs clustering around 30–35°C under typical atmospheric conditions, providing a baseline against which anomalies can be assessed.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the broader East Asian monsoon pattern during early August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, atmospheric pressure systems over the Tibetan Plateau, and moisture transport from the South China Sea will all influence Chengdu's thermal profile. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in late July and early August, particularly from China's National Meteorological Centre, which publishes extended-range outlooks. Any unusual heat dome formation or persistent high-pressure system over central China would shift probabilities toward higher temperature ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.