Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station will determine this market's resolution. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders have until the morning observation period concludes to assess final readings. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the summary Day High & Low section—will serve as the authoritative source, a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between different reporting formats on the platform.

Chengdu's August climate presents consistent patterns worth examining. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32–36°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool spell or scepticism about the market's ability to resolve accurately. Comparable August conditions from prior years show temperatures rarely dipping below 30°C at the airport station, though occasional cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms—common in Sichuan Province during monsoon season—can suppress peak readings by 2–4°C.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 18 August, particularly from China Meteorological Administration updates and international models tracking upper-air patterns over central China. Tropical systems affecting the broader region could introduce moisture and cloud cover that moderates temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems would drive readings toward the upper end of the typical range. The specific timing of peak heating and any precipitation events on the day itself will be critical, as airport station readings capture conditions at a fixed location rather than urban microclimates.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.