Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 August 2026, with resolution based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the upper range options available, or that settlement data will prove unavailable or disputed.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent pattern. Historical records from the China Meteorological Administration show that daily highs in mid-August typically range between 28–34°C, with occasional peaks reaching 35–36°C during heat waves. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a humid subtropical environment where afternoon temperatures frequently climb into the low-to-mid 30s. Over the past decade, extreme August temperatures above 37°C have occurred in roughly one year per five, making such readings plausible but not routine. The current 0% reading suggests the market may be pricing in either a very narrow upper threshold or structural uncertainty about data availability.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Chengdu Shuangliu station data; any technical failures or gaps in reporting could complicate settlement. Seasonal patterns favour temperatures in the 30–34°C band for that date, though the specific range boundaries in the market options will determine whether the crowd's pessimism reflects realistic constraints or mispricing of a routine weather outcome.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.