Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s late-summer heat makes the airport reading a straightforward weather market: on 3 August the city is typically in its hottest stretch, with long-run August highs around 30–34°C and occasional spikes above 35°C in and around the urban area. Historical August guides place 3 August near a 29.3°C average high, but that is an average, not a ceiling; the daily maximum at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport can still run hotter when sunshine breaks through the humid monsoon pattern.[2][1][9]

That is why the crowd’s 0% YES price looks hard to reconcile with the climatology. Comparable forecasts for early August repeatedly show daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s, with some services even projecting 33°C to 35°C on 3 August and heavy humidity rather than cool, settled conditions.[4][5][14] In practice, the market should be read as a temperature-range question, not a binary “hot or not” bet: if the day turns out merely seasonal, the higher brackets remain live, but a truly extreme reading needs clear heat build-up at the station itself.[10][15]

The main catalysts are the airport’s actual observations through the day, especially any afternoon surge before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is 20:00 local time. Traders should watch for convective rain, cloud cover and humidity shifts, because Chengdu August weather is often described as hot, sticky and rain-prone rather than stable; short showers can cap the maximum, while clearer spells can quickly push the top reading into the mid-30s.[1][2][9][16] Real-time forecasts have already shown highs near 35°C for Chengdu Airport conditions, so any last-minute downgrade from sun to rain would be the key dependency.[14][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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