Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s heat on 4 August is being set against a backdrop of a very hot, humid summer pattern, with published August averages clustering around the low 30s Celsius for daytime highs and several forecasters flagging the month as Chengdu’s hottest period.[3][5][11][15] More specific day-level guidance for early August also leans hot: multiple forecast products put 4 August around 31–38°C, which is comfortably above the long-run August norm and consistent with a ceiling that can still push towards the mid-30s when sunshine holds through the afternoon.[2][5][6][10][18]

That is why the market’s **0% YES** crowd price looks more like an overreaction to uncertainty than a firm read on the weather itself: the settlement is tied to the *highest* temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the daily average, so even a brief hot spell can matter.[13] Traders should watch the latest airport observations, the timing of any afternoon showers or cloud cover, and whether official forecast updates keep the daily maximum near the upper 30s rather than easing back into the low 30s.[2][8][10][13] The main dependency is whether the heat peaks before convective rain or thicker cloud interrupts the warming cycle, which is a common risk in Chengdu’s wet-season setup.[5][11][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.