Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July climate routinely delivers extreme heat, with the city frequently exceeding 35°C during midsummer. Historical data shows that 20 July has often seen peak temperatures in the 36–38°C range at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for any temperature above 30°C appear inconsistent with seasonal norms. Wunderground records from 2023 and 2024 confirm highs of 37.2°C and 36.8°C respectively on this date, suggesting the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a hot day.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s weekly forecast updates, which typically release detailed high-temperature projections for Sichuan Province 5–7 days ahead. A recent report from the *South China Morning Post* noted that an incoming subtropical ridge is expected to intensify heat across western China by late July, potentially pushing Chengdu toward its seasonal peak. Additionally, watch for any official adjustments to the Wunderground station’s data logging protocol, as sensor recalibration or maintenance could affect recorded highs. With settlement ending 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z, the next 10 days of forecast evolution will be critical for reassessing the current 0% valuation.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.