Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature in degrees Celsius across defined ranges.

Chengdu experiences a humid subtropical climate with pronounced summer heat. July averages daily highs around 29–32°C, though peaks regularly exceed 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the same station shows July maximums have reached 39–40°C in recent years, particularly during 2013 and 2022 when regional heat domes persisted for weeks. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or systematic uncertainty about data availability from the specific monitoring station.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include broader East Asian atmospheric patterns—the strength of the Pacific subtropical high and any tropical cyclone activity in the region during late July. China's meteorological authority typically issues heat warnings 3–5 days before extreme conditions materialise. Traders should monitor Chengdu's weather forecasts from late July 2026 and cross-reference any official heat advisories. The Wunderground historical archive has proven reliable for Chinese airport stations, though occasional data gaps or station maintenance can affect resolution. Temperature ranges in the market reflect typical July variability; the critical distinction lies between ordinary summer heat (32–35°C) and genuine heat-wave conditions (36°C+).

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.