Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport station has a late-July climate that usually sits in the low 30s Celsius, with the historical July average high around 30°C and the airport’s July record high reaching 35.7°C, so a market pinned at 0% YES is only justified if traders expect an unusually subdued day rather than a normal summer peak.[11][3][14] Nearby historical guides for the city point to typical July highs around 30–35°C, which puts the settlement range in a band that is common enough to be meaningful but high enough that small forecast errors can matter.[12][18]

For context, the most useful comparable cases are hot-season days in Chengdu when the airport briefly surges above the monthly average after a run of humid, stagnant weather, with highs in the mid-30s not exceptional in the broader record.[3][12] Because the market settles on the highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, the key historical lens is not the city average but the station’s own daily extreme, which means traders should treat any forecast in the low 30s as still compatible with a higher intraday spike if sunshine appears late or cloud cover clears.[11][6]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast for Chengdu, the timing of any rain bands or thunderstorm clusters, and whether the airport station reports a late-afternoon maximum rather than an earlier, cooler reading.[12][9] With settlement based on Wunderground history for the airport station, any update to the local forecast track matters more than general provincial weather commentary, especially if humidity and cloud cover shift after midday and allow a brief temperature pop.[6][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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