Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s late-summer heat gives this market a strong bias towards the mid-30s Celsius rather than the low-30s, with August usually the city’s hottest month and historical averages clustering around 34°C.[3][7][18] Long-run climate guides also note that extreme heat in Chongqing is not unusual, with peak August readings occasionally pushing into the 40s, so a zero-per-cent implied chance on the current favourite looks hard to reconcile with the city’s seasonal baseline.[8][13][18]

For comparison, current forecast guidance for 10 August points to a daytime maximum around 34–35°C at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, with AccuWeather showing about 95°F and thunderstorms early in the day, while Polymarket’s own odds currently place 35°C and 34°C well ahead of the rest of the board.[2][11][15] The key trader watchpoint is the resolution source: the market settles on the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for the airport station, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure, so any late-day spike, timing issue, or post-publication revision in the observations table can matter more than broad forecast headlines.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.