Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will determine this market's resolution. The measurement will be taken from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section, with any discrepancy favouring the former source. Chongqing sits in the Sichuan Basin and experiences intense summer heat; August typically ranks among the year's hottest months, with daily highs frequently exceeding 35°C.

Historical August temperature data from Chongqing shows consistent patterns worth examining. Over the past decade, peak August temperatures at the airport station have ranged between 36°C and 40°C on most days, with occasional readings reaching 41–42°C during particularly severe heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific outcome—either an unusually cool day or a temperature threshold set well above typical August maximums. Comparing 2025's August conditions and multi-year averages provides essential calibration for assessing whether the implied range reflects realistic meteorological conditions or market mispricing.

Key variables affecting the outcome include atmospheric pressure systems moving across central China in early August and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific that might redirect moisture patterns. Weather forecasts typically become reliable 7–10 days before the settlement date, offering traders a critical window to reassess probabilities. Monitoring China Meteorological Administration updates and local Chongqing weather services in late July will signal whether anomalous conditions—either cooler monsoon influence or intensified heat dome formation—are developing ahead of the 11th.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.