Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport weather on 4 August is being priced against a city that is usually at the hottest end of its annual cycle. Long-run August climatology points to average highs around 34°C at Chongqing, with day-time temperatures above 40°C described as common in the month, while the historical 4 August high in one published climate table is 34.6°C[1][15]. That means the current 0% yes price is only plausible if traders think the airport station will miss the usual summer heat by a wide margin, rather than merely coming in a little below average[1][13].

Comparable August readings also show that Chongqing’s heat is not just a one-day outlier but part of a broader pattern of hot, humid conditions with frequent rain or thunderstorms[1][12][16]. Forecast-style sources for early August cluster around the mid-30s Celsius rather than the 20s, with some outlets showing 34°C daytime highs and others pushing towards 37°C, which frames the main uncertainty as the exact peak rather than whether the day will be warm[4][11]. For a market that settles on the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, even a brief sunny spell before cloud or rain can matter.

What traders should watch is the local forecast path into the afternoon, especially any shift towards persistent cloud cover or rain that caps the daily maximum earlier than expected. Short-range guidance currently leans hot, with some sources showing a mixed picture of patchy rain and temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s, so the key dependency is whether showers arrive early enough to suppress the day’s peak or hold off until after the maximum is set[4][10][11]. Because the settlement source is a specific airport station on Wunderground, any station-level observation updates around the local afternoon and early evening are the decisive inputs[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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