Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field’s early-August heat profile makes a **triple-digit** outcome the natural frame for this market, and the 0% crowd price on “YES” only makes sense if traders are anchoring to a materially cooler reading than the current forecast backdrop. Weather Underground says the settlement source is the **Daily Observations** table, so the relevant number is the station’s recorded maximum on 6 August rather than the broader day summary; that matters because the market resolves off the observed peak at Dallas Love Field, not a citywide impression. [3]

The main historical guide is that Dallas routinely reaches the upper 90s or low 100s in August, with the local climatology showing a long run of extreme heat and repeated 100°F-plus days in the region. Weather Underground’s market page points to an afternoon high of **101°F** under persistent summer heat and light southerly flow, while other forecast sites for Dallas around that date cluster in the mid-to-upper 90s, which helps explain why the leading bucket is around 100-101°F and why the market is not pricing a very low ceiling. [1][2][11]

For traders, the key catalysts are the **final station observation** at Love Field, any late-day forecast adjustment from the National Weather Service, and whether cloud cover or a storm outflow trims the peak temperature before the day’s last reading is logged. CBS Texas noted hot weather continuing across North Texas with triple-digit heat in the forecast for 6 August, which supports watching for any day-of changes in heat index, convection, or wind direction that could nudge the actual maximum into or out of the top bracket. [12][1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.