Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field will record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance that the reading exceeds any defined threshold, despite historical data suggesting extreme heat is typical for mid-summer in North Texas. This near-zero probability for a “YES” outcome likely reflects a misalignment in the market’s binary framing, as the actual frontrunner outcome is 90–91°F at 41%, followed by 88–89°F at 34%, indicating traders expect temperatures well within the high-90s range rather than an absence of heat [1].

Historically, Dallas experiences average highs of 96–97°F in mid-July, with frequent spikes above 100°F; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” resolution appears inconsistent with this climatic baseline, suggesting either a definitional error in the market’s binary condition or a lack of liquidity distorting price signals. Comparable July 15 readings in recent years include 103°F in 2023 and 99°F in 2022, reinforcing that temperatures below 85°F are exceptionally rare and unlikely to trigger a “YES” if the threshold is set low.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history page for KDAL as the official settlement source, watching for real-time updates on 15 July before the 12:00 UTC deadline, and verify whether the “YES” condition refers to exceeding a specific temperature not visible in the current snapshot [1]. Any sudden shift in the 90–91°F probability could signal emerging forecast data from NOAA or local meteorologists that may correct the current 0% mispricing.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.