Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 96-97°F | 100% |
| 92-93°F | 0% |
| 102-103°F | 0% |
| 104-105°F | 0% |
| 91°F or below | 0% |
| 94-95°F | 0% |
| 98-99°F | 0% |
| 100-101°F | 0% |
| 106-107°F | 0% |
| 108-109°F | 0% |
| 110°F or higher | 0% |
Market context
Dallas on 28 June 2026 is forecast to reach a high of 97°F under sunny skies, a figure consistent with recent June patterns at Love Field where daily highs typically range between 96°F and 100°F[1][4]. Historical data for this specific date shows an all-time peak of 110°F recorded in 1980, yet the current 0% probability for higher ranges suggests traders view that extreme as an outlier rather than a baseline expectation[2]. Recent years have seen variable highs fluctuating between 75°F and 89°F, with 2026 already marking nine 100°F days in DFW, indicating a warm but not record-breaking summer trend[1][8].
Traders should monitor the official Wunderground resolution source for the final confirmed reading, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June 2026[1]. While the forecast remains stable, any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation chances—currently noted at 20% for several days—could alter the peak temperature[1]. The National Weather Service recorded 93°F at 3 PM on 28 June, providing a real-time benchmark that aligns with the 97°F forecast[6]. No major coaching changes or key absences apply here, but the dependency on the specific station data at KDAL is critical for accurate resolution.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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