Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 15 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that day. The market currently shows zero probability of any outcome, suggesting either incomplete pricing or uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately occur.

Guangzhou's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 32–35°C during mid-August, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's location in southern China's subtropical zone, combined with monsoon influences and urban heat island effects around the airport station, creates predictable thermal patterns. August represents the tail end of Guangzhou's hottest season, though not its absolute peak—July typically records marginally higher extremes. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which the market specifies as the binding resolution source, occasionally diverges from summary figures due to measurement timing and station calibration.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration as August 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or tropical systems that could elevate or suppress temperatures. The specific reliance on Baiyun Airport Station data—rather than urban centre readings—matters; airport stations often record slightly different values owing to surface composition and exposure. Any significant weather pattern shifts, such as early arrival of autumn fronts or intensified subtropical high-pressure systems, would be visible in forecasts 7–10 days ahead of the settlement date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.