Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s August heat usually centres on the low 30s Celsius, and the current crowd view of 0% for a day’s top temperature landing in the market’s bullish bands is hard to square with the seasonal baseline. Forecasts for August 2026 put Guangzhou’s daily highs mostly between 89°F and 93°F, or roughly 32–34°C, with the month’s average high around 91°F[1][12]. Guangzhou is also typically humid and rainy in August, which can trim extremes at times, but the city still spends much of the month in hot, tropical conditions[4][10][18].

For comparable cases, the key reference point is that Guangzhou’s late-summer temperature profile is normally anchored close to 33°C, with some forecasts allowing for peaks nearer 34°C and occasional hotter days when cloud cover breaks down[3][7][15]. The official Guangdong forecast for 4 August already called for Guangzhou itself to reach 25–32°C, showing that the day starts in a warm regime rather than a cool one[2]. That matters because the market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, so a brief afternoon spike can settle the outcome even if rain arrives later.

The main catalysts are the day’s evolving local forecast, the timing of showers or thunderstorms, and any shift in cloud cover or monsoon flow over the Pearl River Delta. Guangzhou’s airport observations already show warm, humid conditions, with BBC Weather reporting 30°C at Baiyun Airport and 89% humidity, which leaves room for further heating if rain holds off[8]. Traders should watch for updated short-range guidance from the local meteorological office and airport observations through the afternoon, because the final reading will depend on the single highest hourly or intraday temperature logged before midnight local time at the station[2][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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