Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s August heat is typically driven by a humid subtropical monsoon pattern, with average highs around 32–33°C and frequent rain, so the distribution for a daily maximum is usually anchored in the low-to-mid 30s rather than at either extreme.[2][10][15] For this market, the key number is the highest reading at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 6 August, not the daily average, so a brief afternoon spike matters more than the morning or overnight profile.[9][13]

That is why the current 0% yes price only makes sense if the board is sitting on a very specific temperature band that traders think is effectively unreachable. Historical August norms in Guangzhou point to highs commonly near 33–35°C, while one climatology source shows an August 6 historical high of 35.6°C, and the broader record includes much hotter outliers in the upper 30s.[11][10][15] In other words, a market that is pinned to 0% for one outcome is usually reflecting confidence in a nearby alternative, not an expectation of unusual cold.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual observed maximum at the airport station and any late revisions before the first datapoint for the following date is published, because the market only settles on the recorded highest temperature within the window.[13] Traders should also watch for short-range forecast updates on heat-ridge strength, cloud cover and rainfall timing, since those are the variables most likely to shift the peak by a degree or two in Guangzhou’s summer setup.[13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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