Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is experiencing light rain and fog with temperatures around 21°C on this evening of 20 July 2026, a stark contrast to the scorching heat typically expected in mid-summer. The market’s 0% YES probability for any temperature range implies traders believe the day’s weather will fail to reach even the lowest defined threshold, likely due to the persistent cloud cover and precipitation suppressing daytime highs. Historical data for July in Guangzhou shows average highs near 33°C, but the current wet conditions align with rare cool spells that have occasionally dipped daytime temperatures below 28°C in past years [1].

Traders should monitor the overnight clearing trend and any forecast updates from Wunderground for the Baiyun Airport station, as the settlement relies solely on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 20 July. If the rain persists through tomorrow’s peak heating hours, the day’s maximum will likely remain in the low-to-mid 20s, confirming the current pricing. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here, but the key dependency is the meteorological shift: a sudden break in cloud cover could spike temperatures unexpectedly, though current models suggest continued dampness. The resolution source is fixed, so real-time Wunderground updates will be the definitive catalyst for any late-position adjustments.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.