Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the settlement contingent on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The airport's weather station sits at 11 metres elevation in Guangzhou's northern district and serves as the official observation point for the city's meteorological records.

Guangzhou's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 33–37°C range, with extremes occasionally reaching 38–39°C during particularly intense heatwaves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent high temperatures throughout mid-summer, though daily variation depends on cloud cover, precipitation timing, and upper-atmosphere pressure systems. Records from the past decade show that 21 July has typically seen highs between 34–36°C, with only occasional excursions beyond 37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about market mechanics rather than meteorological expectation.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's positioning in early July 2026, as its strength and location will determine whether Guangzhou experiences typical summer conditions or anomalous cooling. Typhoon activity in the South China Sea during mid-July could introduce cloud cover and precipitation that would suppress daily highs. China's national meteorological service issues 10-day forecasts by mid-July; these will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric patterns shaping that specific date. Settlement relies on Wunderground's historical data feed from Baiyun station, which updates daily and remains publicly accessible for verification.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.