Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the settlement contingent on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The airport weather station serves as the official reference point for the city's meteorological data, eliminating ambiguity about measurement location or methodology.

Guangzhou's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 33–36°C range, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent high temperatures during mid-to-late July, though the precise daily maximum varies based on cloud cover, humidity patterns, and upper-atmosphere conditions. Between 2015 and 2024, Guangzhou recorded July highs above 35°C in roughly 70% of years, providing a baseline for assessing probability distributions across temperature brackets.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on specific temperature thresholds. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea or sustained high-pressure systems over southern China—would shift expectations materially. Historical precedent indicates that Guangzhou rarely experiences July maxima below 32°C or above 39°C, framing the realistic range for settlement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.