Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

Guangzhou on 27 June 2026 is entering its peak subtropical high-pressure phase, where daily highs typically cluster between 31°C and 35°C, making a temperature above 35°C historically rare but not impossible. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome (likely meaning a temperature exceeding a specific high threshold, perhaps 35°C or 36°C) aligns with historical patterns: the absolute record high for Guangzhou in June is 36.6°C, but such extremes occur only in exceptional years. Most late-June days fall comfortably below 35°C, with averages hovering near 32–33°C, suggesting the market is correctly pricing low odds for an outlier event.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover, typhoon activity, or heavy downpours could suppress temperatures below typical ranges. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs for June 2026 ranging from 87°F to 91°F (30.6°C–32.8°C), reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures staying within the 31–33°C band. Any announcement of an approaching typhoon or intense storm system—common in June—would further reduce the chance of a record-breaking high, while a prolonged period of clear skies under the subtropical high could push temperatures toward the upper end of the typical range. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here, as this is a weather market, but atmospheric dependencies remain the critical catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.