Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s weather on 1 August will determine this market, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Max** in degrees Celsius as the settlement figure. The crowd’s 0% YES price implies the market is treating an outright high-end outcome as effectively absent, but August is still one of the city’s hottest periods and the Observatory’s long-run normal for 1 August is a mean maximum of **31.6°C**, which makes a warm reading materially more plausible than in cooler months.[1]

Historical comparables show that Hong Kong can spike well above the seasonal average when subtropical ridging dominates. The Observatory said August 2024 was “persistently very hot” under an anticyclone aloft, and temperatures reached **35.4°C** on 5 August, the month’s peak; August 2025 also produced a **34.4°C** monthly maximum.[7][15] By contrast, official August normals suggest more typical highs sit in the low 30s, so traders are really judging whether synoptic conditions can push the daily maximum several degrees above the climatological mean.[1][4]

The main catalyst is the actual weather pattern over Hong Kong during the day itself: cloud, rain bands, and sea-breeze effects can cap the maximum quickly, while clear, subsident conditions can drive a sharp overshoot. The Observatory’s climatology page is the settlement source, and its current weather and daily extract pages are the key references once the day’s data are finalised.[3][16] The most relevant watchpoint is whether any late-summer heat ridge or disturbed monsoon setup suppresses sunshine or introduces showers, because either would reduce the chance of an extreme daily high.[7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.