Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s hottest reading on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s **absolute daily maximum**, so the market turns on the single highest official temperature logged anywhere in the Observatory’s network, not on the citywide average. August is normally a very warm month: the Hong Kong Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 10 August’s mean maximum at 31.4°C, while the previous August’s daily maximum at the Observatory reached 34.4°C on 10 August 2025. [3][2]

That historical pattern helps explain why the current 0% YES implies a very low bar for an upside move: Hong Kong has a long late-summer tail for heat, and the territory has recently produced extremes well above 34°C, including a 36.9°C reading reported by *The Standard* in August 2026 and a 34.7°C Observatory maximum on 8 August 2026 reported by TVB. [4][15] In other words, the question is less whether August can produce heat than whether 10 August itself lands in a sufficiently hot window at the Observatory’s final daily extract. [2][15]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s official hourly readings through the afternoon and the finalised Daily Extract, which will resolve the market once published on the HKO climate archive. Early-august conditions already showed warmth at 6 a.m. on 10 August 2025, with the Observatory at 29°C and surrounding stations mostly 26–29°C, underscoring how quickly the day can build if sunshine holds; by contrast, forecast services are already pointing to showers and an upper-90s Fahrenheit high for 10 August, which would still leave room for a wide range of Celsius outcomes depending on cloud cover and rain timing. [9][8][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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