Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached on 16 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single daily maximum reading determines the resolution outcome across defined temperature bands. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the Observatory typically publishes finalised daily climate data within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's August temperatures cluster consistently in the 32–34°C range, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during the month. Historical data from the Observatory shows that since records began, August 16 specifically has seen highs between 31.5°C and 34.2°C across recent decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper temperature bands to remain unresolved, reflecting confidence in typical seasonal patterns rather than extreme heat events.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, as both significantly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes monthly outlooks that flag anomalous temperature expectations; any advisory of above-normal heat would shift probability towards higher bands. Additionally, the precise settlement depends entirely on Observatory data publication—delays in the "Daily Extract" release could postpone resolution beyond the formal window close.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.