Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 20 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This reading forms the basis for settlement, with the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" figure from the Daily Extract serving as the definitive source once finalised.

August in Hong Kong typically sees peak summer heat, with historical daily maxima clustering between 32°C and 34°C during this period. The Observatory's records from recent Augusts show occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves, though such extremes remain comparatively rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature bands to exclude the most likely outcomes, or that insufficient liquidity exists to establish meaningful pricing across the available ranges.

Traders monitoring this market should track the meteorological forecast window as mid-August 2026 approaches. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance, with updates refining predictions for atmospheric pressure systems, monsoon activity, and potential tropical cyclone influence—all factors materially affecting daily maxima. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication timeline for the Daily Extract; delays in data finalisation could postpone resolution beyond the nominal settlement window. Regional weather patterns during late summer, including the strength of the Pacific anticyclone and any tropical systems affecting the South China Sea, will determine whether temperatures trend toward seasonal norms or exceed them.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.