Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the peak Celsius temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 21 July 2026, with settlement dependent on the official “Absolute Daily Max” figure published in the Daily Extract. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome on any specific range, Polymarket data shows traders heavily favouring 31°C at 39% and 30°C at 37%, indicating strong conviction that temperatures will reach the high-thirties rather than remain lower [1].

Historically, late July in Hong Kong routinely sees maximums between 30°C and 34°C, with 31°C being the most frequent peak in the past decade. The current 0% probability for a generic YES outcome likely reflects a misalignment in market framing—perhaps traders are betting on specific ranges rather than a binary event—while the 39% and 37% allocations to 31°C and 30°C respectively align closely with climatological norms for this period [1].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the official data for 21 July is finalized. Any pre-release weather bulletins or tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Observatory could act as immediate catalysts, potentially shifting probabilities if they signal unusually cool or hot conditions. No recent coaching changes or team absences apply here, as this is a weather event, not a sports fixture.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.