Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will publish the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 3 July 2026, measured to one decimal place, once the data is finalized in its Daily Extract. This single recorded figure determines the market resolution, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific temperature range suggesting the market expects no data to be available or a resolution outside tradable ranges.

Historical July peaks in Hong Kong typically fall between 31°C and 36°C, with the average high for July 2026 forecast at 31°C and recent seasonal guidance indicating normal to above-normal temperatures for the period [1][2][3]. Comparable cases show that even during typhoon activity, which can suppress temperatures to 18°C, the daily maximum for non-typhoon days remains robust, making the 0% probability unusual unless data publication is delayed [6].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule and any announcements regarding typhoon warnings, as Typhoon Man-yi’s approach could disrupt data collection or delay the finalisation of the Daily Extract [6]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 3 July 2026, so any delay beyond this point will prevent resolution, and the thin volume on related low-temperature markets suggests limited liquidity for hedging [4]. Watch for official updates from the Observatory’s climate division, as confirmed by contact details on their seasonal forecast page, to confirm data finalisation timing [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.