Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 30 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 24% chance that this figure falls into the highest defined range. Historical data frames this probability as conservative given the city’s accelerating warming trend; 2025 was Hong Kong’s sixth-warmest year since 1884, breaking 20 weather records including a June absolute maximum of 35.6°C[1][9]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures, citing long-term increasing trends and current ENSO conditions that favour heat rather than cooling[2]. Recent daily highs in mid-June 2026 already reached 91.6°F (33.1°C), suggesting the atmosphere is primed for extreme values before the month ends[7].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” data from the Hong Kong Observatory, which is the sole resolution source and will only be published after the settlement window closes[8]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in the Pacific subtropical ridge or unexpected monsoon activity, which could suppress peak temperatures despite the broader warming trend. The Hong Kong Observatory’s June 2026 forecast indicates daily highs typically ranging from 86°F to 91°F (30°C–33°C), with an average of 89°F (32°C), meaning the highest range likely requires a significant deviation above this baseline[6]. No official coaching changes or team absences apply here, but the dependency on finalized climatological data remains the critical variable for settlement[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.