Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s temperature on 9 August is being settled from the **highest reading at William P. Hobby Airport**, not the summary high shown elsewhere, so the key issue is whether the day’s peak landed in the low 90s or a touch higher. Weather Underground’s historical page showed a latest report of 91.9°F at 12:53 pm on 9 August, with a 6-hour high of 93.0°F, while the National Weather Service forecast for Houston that day called for a high near 92°F amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered afternoon thunderstorms.[1][3] That is consistent with the market’s current 0% implied chance on a very low outcome and a much heavier cluster around the low-90s bands.[4]

For traders, the relevant comparison is how Houston behaves in early August: the city’s average high is around 95°F, and the official climate normal for Hobby Airport lists a maximum of 94°F for the period around 9 August, so a reading in the 90s is routine rather than exceptional.[2][5] In broader Houston history, 98°F had already been recorded earlier in August 2026 at the same station, showing that materially hotter outcomes were possible during the month even if they did not appear likely on this date.[12] That leaves the main settlement risk in the exact hourly evolution of the afternoon rather than any unusual heat spike.

The main catalysts were the afternoon thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, and whether any late-day sun briefly lifted the station above the forecast range before cooling set in.[3][18] Weather Underground’s own market terms matter here: revisions count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so traders will care about the final Daily Observations table rather than any early recap or day-high summary.[4] If the Hobby Airport log never printed above the low 90s, the market should stay anchored to the 92-93°F band; if a late observation reached 94°F or more, that would shift the settlement outcome materially.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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