Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s heat benchmark for this market is the highest reading logged at William P. Hobby Airport, not the citywide forecast headline. A 0% implied chance on the top outcome suggests the crowd is effectively pricing in a temperature that stays outside the highest band, which can happen early in the day if the eventual afternoon peak has not yet been absorbed into trading. In practical terms, the market will only settle on the range containing the day’s recorded maximum at Hobby, so traders are watching the actual airport observation rather than general Houston conditions.

Historical and comparable summer cases in Houston usually turn on the same pattern: a humid morning, then a stronger afternoon rise if cloud cover thins and winds stay light. Recent local past-weather data show Houston producing a 95°F high with high humidity and light winds, which is consistent with a warm Gulf Coast setup but not necessarily enough to force the very top temperature bands at Hobby[1]. That matters because these markets often hinge less on headline heat and more on whether the afternoon can clear the next threshold by a degree or two.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any late changes in cloud cover or rain chances, and the timing of the airport’s peak temperature relative to the settlement window. For a market tied to a specific station, even a modest sea-breeze shift, an isolated shower, or earlier-than-expected cloud build-up can cap the maximum. Traders will also be looking at whether Houston-area forecasters keep the high-end range intact through the morning and whether Hobby’s observation stays aligned with the broader city forecast as the day warms.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.