Highest temperature in London on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s high at London City Airport today will depend on how much of the warm spell translates into the airport station rather than just central-London forecasts. The market is resolved on the single highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 3 August, so a brief afternoon peak matters more than the day’s average or the overnight low.

That is why the current 0% YES implies an outcome at the bottom of the range, but the available forecasts do not support treating that as a settled result. AccuWeather puts London’s August highs in a 67°F to 78°F band, while Wunderground’s hourly forecast for 3 August shows “Very warm” conditions with a high of 83°F and east winds of 10 to 15 mph[1][4]. Other local forecasts are also warm, with temperatures around 24°C to 33°C depending on the source and model, which is consistent with a potential high comfortably above the low end of the market’s bands[2][3][5][7][17].

Traders should watch the early-morning and midday updates most closely, because a small shift in cloud cover, wind direction, or timing of any shower can move the terminal high by a couple of degrees. The key dependency is the Heathrow/Met Office-style synoptic pattern translated into the London City Airport station reading, not broader city commentary; if the warm spell holds through the afternoon, the market is more likely to settle in a mid-range or upper-range bin than at the extreme low end[4][5][15].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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