Highest temperature in London on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport recorded its highest temperature for 19 July 2026, settling the prediction market on the day’s peak heat. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome other than the frontrunner, which is 21°C at 100% confidence, indicating the market has effectively locked in this specific reading as the resolved value [1].

Historically, July is London’s warmest month, with Met Office averages hovering near 23°C and frequent heatwaves pushing temperatures above 30°C, including a record 40.2°C at Heathrow in July 2022 [3]. While average peaks sit around 23°C, the current 21°C frontrunner sits slightly below the typical mean, suggesting the market is pricing in a cooler-than-average day for this specific date, despite broader trends suggesting at least one sustained scorcher above 30°C is likely in 2026 [3].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground history for London City Airport (EGLC) as the definitive settlement source, checking for any discrepancies between the recorded 21°C and real-time forecasts that might have shifted prior to the event [1]. With the settlement window closing on 2026-07-19T12:00:00Z, the market’s 100% allocation to 21°C implies no further volatility is expected, and the resolution will depend strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day at the specified station [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.