Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport is the reference point for this market, and the key question is whether 9 August 2026 stays in a fairly narrow late-summer band or breaks higher in the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The current 0% YES pricing implies traders see the upper bins as extremely unlikely, which fits a setup where coastal influence and marine air often cap LAX below the hotter inland parts of the metro area.[2][14]

Historical context supports treating single-day Los Angeles highs as tightly clustered unless a strong heat event is in place. The National Weather Service climate report for Downtown Los Angeles shows an 84°F normal maximum for 9 August and a 100°F record, while recent August examples from regional outlets and weather sites have shown LAX landing around the low 80s even during hotter spells elsewhere in Southern California.[1][17][15] That makes extreme upper-temperature bins at LAX rare enough that a near-zero probability can be rational if forecasters expect only an ordinary summer day.[1][17]

The main catalysts to watch are the day’s actual hourly observations and any late-day marine-layer surprises, because the market settles on the highest value in the Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low. For traders, the practical dependencies are whether temperatures continue rising into the afternoon, whether a sea breeze holds the airport down, and whether the final Weather Underground table later revises an earlier peak before the next day’s first datapoint appears.[2][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.