Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow on 17 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution. Lucknow, situated in the Indo-Gangetic Plain of Uttar Pradesh, experiences intense summer heat through mid-August, with the monsoon season beginning to influence conditions by that date. The settlement window closes at midday on the resolution date, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point will count toward the final figure.

Historical August temperatures at Lucknow's airport station show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, maximum temperatures on mid-August dates ranged from 32.8°C to 38.6°C, with an average around 35.2°C. The monsoon's arrival typically moderates peak temperatures from their June-July peaks of 40°C or higher, though dry spells can still produce readings above 37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect an unusually cool day or are heavily weighted toward lower temperature bands.

Traders should monitor the monsoon forecast trajectory for late summer 2026, as an active system could suppress temperatures significantly below historical norms. The Indian Meteorological Department's seasonal outlook, typically released in May, will provide guidance on expected rainfall patterns and temperature anomalies for the August period. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10-14 days before the settlement date, so early positioning carries substantial uncertainty regarding atmospheric conditions that month.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.