Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's maximum temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport using the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, the sole authoritative source for settlement. The current crowd assessment of 0% probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the highest range bracket available in this market's resolution structure.

August in Madrid typically registers daily highs between 32–36°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 38–40°C during heat waves. Historical data from the airport station shows that mid-August temperatures have ranged from 28°C in cooler years to 39°C during the 2003 European heat wave and similar events in 2012 and 2015. The 0% probability reading indicates the market may be calibrated around a specific upper threshold; traders should verify which temperature bracket represents the highest option before assessing whether current odds reflect genuine scarcity of extreme heat or a structural misalignment in the market's range definitions.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-August 2025 onwards, particularly from AEMET (Spain's national meteorological agency) and Météo-France, which typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks by early August. Any significant heat dome or anticyclonic system developing over the Iberian Peninsula in the fortnight before 16 August would be the primary catalyst shifting probability. The settlement window closes at midday on the resolution date, so final observations must be recorded before that timestamp on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.