Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Madrid-Barajas Airport on 21 July 2026 will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The airport's meteorological station provides the official measurement used by Wunderground's historical database, which serves as the resolution source. Madrid experiences peak summer heat in late July, with average highs around 32–34°C during this period, though individual days frequently exceed these norms.

Historical data from the past two decades shows Madrid's July temperatures cluster heavily in the 35–40°C range, with readings above 40°C occurring roughly once every three to four years during the hottest spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds offered or expect conditions below historical norms for late July. Comparable years with strong heat domes across southern Europe—such as 2022 and 2023—saw Madrid regularly exceed 38°C in mid-to-late July, providing a baseline for assessing likelihood across different temperature bands.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include Atlantic weather patterns and high-pressure systems forming over the Iberian Peninsula in the weeks preceding 21 July. The Spanish meteorological agency (AEMET) typically issues extended forecasts by early July that can signal whether anomalous heat is probable. Traders should monitor AEMET's monthly outlooks and any alerts regarding heat waves, as these often precede sustained high temperatures. The specific time of day when the maximum is recorded—typically mid-afternoon—remains consistent across years, making seasonal patterns relatively predictable compared to other weather variables.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.