Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 10 August is likely to be capped by a wet, unstable setup rather than a clean run at the seasonal peak. The latest forecast calls for thunderstorms or showers through the day, with around 85–100% precipitation chance, which usually limits afternoon heating and keeps the daily high close to the low- to mid-30s Celsius rather than the upper end of the August range.[2][4][10] Weather Underground’s station page shows Manila under rain early in the day, and PAGASA is flagging occasional rains across Metro Manila under the southwest monsoon.[9][12]

That is why a 0% YES crowd price looks hard to defend against the historical context: Manila’s August climatology still supports warm afternoons, but monsoon days often finish several degrees below the month’s average high of about 31°C, especially when cloud cover and showers persist.[8][11] Comparable forecasts from AccuWeather and timeanddate cluster the day around 29–32°C, with the more aggressive outcomes needing a break in rainfall and enough sun to lift the airport station reading later in the afternoon.[1][4] If the market is resolving off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, the key trader watchpoint is the station’s actual late-day maximum rather than any summary high.[9]

The main catalysts are short-term: whether thunderstorms fire after late morning, whether the rain band shifts away from Ninoy Aquino International Airport, and whether PAGASA maintains or upgrades monsoon rain advisories for Metro Manila.[10][12] The first reliable read will come from Weather Underground’s observation updates as the day progresses, because the settlement source prioritises the Daily Observations table and not the Day High & Low box.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.